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Are Presidential Polls a Reliable Resource for Voting?

With the margins changing from hour-to-hour, day-to-day and from state-to-state, will pre-election polls affect the way you vote?

Are you tracking the polls? With changes in percentages and leads from day-to-day, it's hard to keep up with the significance of the numbers game.

According to Examiner.com the October 11 Gallup Poll showed President Obama’s national approval rating at 50%. Should be an easy win, right? That same poll, however reflected a Romney lead of 1% (48% to 47%) among likely voters in Ohio but President Obama ahead by 2% (48% to 46%) among registered voters. 

On the morning of October 11, Rasmussen Reports showed President Obama lead of 1% (48% to 47%) over Romney. After the Vice Presidential debate, Rasmussen Reports released its daily presidential poll numbers which show Mitt Romney with support from 48% of voters and President Obama at 47%. According to the poll, an additional 2% of voters prefer another candidate and 3% are still undecided. Also according to Rasmussen, Romney has a 2% lead in Virginia and 1% in their swing state tracking while President Obama holds a pretty large lead at 52% vs. Romney’s 45% in Michigan.

If we were ONLY looking at one or even two of the polls, the candidates could definitely see where the work needs to be done to be elected and we could predict the outcome of the November 6 election.

But wait … there’s more. Local polls reflect a big gap between some of the nationally ranked pollsters and local efforts. For example, there’s a big difference in the Rasmussen numbers for Florida which show Romney with a full 4% lead (51% to President Obama’s 47%) and what one of the local polls is reporting: Romney with a substantial 7% lead in Florida!

Confused?

Polling is usually performed among registered voters and likely voters. The difference with these two cross sections largely lies in who has voted in recent primaries and elections as opposed to those who are registered, but do not have a history of voting. Questions asked by pollsters are designed for the candidates to better understand where their strengths and weaknesses lie. The significance being that a poll can reflect true intentions of voters or be manipulated by the questions asked of those who are polled. For more information on the significance of polling, you can check out this link to “Five Myths About Political Polls.

It’s going to continue to be a tight race, right up until November 6; the swing states will still have a significant impact on who will serve our country as President for the next four years.

Will you be watching the polls? Do they and will they make a difference in your vote?

Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 02:11 pm
They show the shifts and ebbs and flows throughout a campaign, and sometimes infuences a person if they think they're either winning or losing based on that information, but in the end, people can turn in a voting booth. That's been proven a few times.
JANYCE October 13, 2012 at 08:11 pm
You are correct Tammy.I have never been polled before. 75 and never been polled Wow
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 08:22 pm
Leading up to the last debate before the election on 1980, carter was leading Reagan 43/ 41. After the debate, Reagan gained a slight lead, 43-41 amongst undecided voters. Then, the landslide.
The scenario is similar here except for one thing. The Iranian hostage situation and carter's weakness weighed heavily on the people, whereas, today we have other things to distract us and occupy our time. You'd think that a 911 would have woke us up, but we are talking about a generation raised on media and a dumbing down of critical thinking skills. Our Ambassador was just assassinated and people are defending their presidents right to go back to the campaign trail in hollywood. The people don't care enough to realize that nukes and the like are a life and death situation. Terrorism was, like, you know, so Bush era. Didn't kill me and mine, so what do we care? We should take seriously what a man does in regards to foreign policy and protecting our military. Obama said in that one speech he gave, "The future does not belong to those who slander the prophet mohammed" Oh God, I can't even begin to speak to that one. Plus, Jimmy carter didn't have the popularity that obama has, but did has the uniqueness- carter was a county bumpkin everyday man goes to the White House, and obama his racial make-up in a first time position. Conclude to say that the polls being close is not a good indicator for the incumbent, unless people are really as blind as they have appeared as of late.
BARBARA GRAETTINGER October 13, 2012 at 08:41 pm
The polls don't really make a difference in how I vote since I live in Texas. As a Democrat, I feel disenfranchised because of the electoral college and the fact Obama doesn't stand a chance in taking this state. Still that won't stop me from voting for him. I will stand up and be counted regardless of the polls. I encourage everyone to do the same regardless of their preference of candidate.
Robert October 16, 2012 at 02:57 pm
Please don't vote for Democrats. They are blindly following the Marxist Obama and his Marxist cretins. This is no longer the party of JFK and Truman. It has been commandeered by radical leftists and marxists. You can vote for Tyranny with the marxist president that we have, or you can choose liberty and vote Republican. Make no mistake, if you vote Democrat we will be going down a path never intended by our founders. A path of complete government invasion into our lives. The path that their motto "Forward" invokes. You don't have to become a republican to vote against their socialist agenda,. You can choose to stay Democrat or Independent. But we need you in this fight to save our country and to preserve our liberties for this and other generations. Help us send this message and follow your hearts.
Want more proof that Obama is a Marxist? Just look at his campaign slogan: Forward! Classic code language used by these and every Marxist since Marx and Engels. Look it up in Wikipedia. You will find it. It has its own section for "Forward " Do you think that it is just an accident or coincidence that they chose Forward? Or is it because it is ingrained in every fiber of their Marxist indoctrinated bodies? Vote for Liberty Not Tyranny!! God Bless the USA!
George Wilson October 16, 2012 at 03:03 pm
@Robert
"Workers of the world unite you have nothing to lose but your chains"This is much better than "Forward"

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Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors. Write a new post... What's up? Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell something
David Binder June 18, 2013 at 06:03 pm
And it's not posting my comment how I typed it. It's jumbled on the "Boards" banner.
Sharon Swanepoel (Editor) June 18, 2013 at 06:11 pm
Yea, sorry David. We are still dealing with some "issues." It rejected Jason's blog, andRead More none of us, not even our top regional editor, is being given authority to release it. Poor Jason, I know he so hates being rejected! And we hate it happening to him. The people not being "bugged" by technical issues, however, are reporting that it is super easy to use.
Tammy Osier June 18, 2013 at 01:08 am
Sadly, Mr. Newman, we have people who live in a utopic vision of the world and refuse to believeRead More that this can happen. Sounds a bit like 1984. Ironic too, is that in the bible, when the Lord was referring to people being blinded and going astray, he referred to them as sheep, and that phrase has been coined today to denote the same type of mentality. This could happen if our watchmen stop guarding the gate.
Karsten Torch June 18, 2013 at 12:39 pm
What's sad is that people will accuse you of needing a tinfoil hat because of this post. But weRead More are marching inexorably toward this end, the only thing we can really control is how quickly or slowly we get there.....
TheSkalawag June 18, 2013 at 08:29 pm
I don't think that Ray needs a tinfoil hat but I just don't see the inexorable march to theRead More dystopian world Ray is foretelling either. I do understand the gloom and doom outlook and I attribute that to the unrealistic quest for the Norman Rockwell version of life in America. That kind of life was made for tv. Life never really was like that. At least not that I remember anyway. And I would wager not for the majority of Americans.
Tom Laverick June 18, 2013 at 01:06 pm
That looks similar to a lost dog poster at the corner of 81 and Bold Springs Road.
Sharon Swanepoel (Editor) June 18, 2013 at 03:05 pm
Tom, I will see if I can find the connection.
Sharon Swanepoel (Editor) June 18, 2013 at 05:51 pm
Good news! Her name is Izzi and she has been reunited with her owners.
tijensen June 15, 2013 at 12:34 pm
The better assignment would have been how could you have written a letter to try and convince themRead More not to commit suicide. To persuade them about all the wonderful things you love about them, how special they are and what the world would miss if they were not in it. A creative teacher could have used the same exercise to teach a life lesson that may have helped someone save a life down the road.
Tammy Osier June 15, 2013 at 12:40 pm
TJ, exactly. Like you said, a GOOD teacher would have found a way to make students think outside theRead More box yet still examine the mood of the story. But I do agree with ggy that it might have been more appropriate for a college aged student. High school (girls especially) have so much drama going on inside of them, and confusion about so many things, that it might be impossible for them to be objective in an assignment like that. Boo to the teacher.
flyinby June 15, 2013 at 08:34 pm
strikes me as more subversive attempts by perverted minds dedicated to influence all our childrenRead More with this sick mindset: http://larouchepac.com/node/11188 http://www.naturalnews.com/040744_euthanasia_children_mercy_killings.html http://www.lifenews.com/2013/06/06/sarah-palin-blasts-sebelius-for-denying-girls-lifesaving-lung-transplant/ http://cnsnews.com/blog/judie-brown/lives-unworthy-be-lived-and-polst http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/the-elite-are-attempting-to-convince-us-that-killing-off-our-sick-grandparents-is-cool-and-trendy suicides higher than car crashes past few yrs http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2207089/56-million-suicide-prevention-programme-launched-study-reveals-Americans-lives-die-car-crashes.html http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/02/08/more-states-consider-legalizing-assisted-suicide-as-baby-boomers-age/
Octo Slash June 14, 2013 at 12:18 pm
My kids drink coffee every morning because they need something to accompany their cigarettes.
Tammy Osier June 14, 2013 at 01:12 pm
Tr - the perfect diet - the Mediterranean diet has a lot of fish in it. Olive oils etc... OurRead More American diet has a lot of animal fat in it and look at us as opposed to other nations! Fish oil is brain food. A multi is good, but we should ask our pediatricians about adding fish oil to our kids' diets. We should get our (good) fats through diet. Good fats help vitamins go where they are supposed to and do what they're supposed to do.
Deedee June 15, 2013 at 08:12 pm
My grandma always drunk coffee all day and I started around 30 and I am no good without at least oneRead More cup a day but she always stated that we couldn't have any as kids because it will stunt our growth. I have always felt that there is something to many of those old sayings and did not let my son touch it.
Tammy Osier June 17, 2013 at 01:53 pm
DR, seems like an oxymoron doesn't it? I'd like to hear from someone who is actually from there toRead More find out their spin on why they even enter a contestant in the first place. It's my understanding that a woman that shows that much skin in public will be flogged or worse? Maybe democracy is taking ahold in some places, who knows?
Good Grief Y'all June 17, 2013 at 03:24 pm
I was wrong. Guys are interested pageants. You would no doubt be happy if the contestants justRead More wore the face shawl with their bikinis.
Karsten Torch June 17, 2013 at 04:30 pm
Couple of thoughts - One, why hold it in a land where there is going to be this kind of protest?Read More Just move it and don't worry about it. Other, I find it interesting how the Muslims want us to be understanding and inclusive of their beliefs, but don't even think they'll allow anything they don't agree with. Just a tad bit hypocritical...
R June 14, 2013 at 02:06 am
You mean the FEES don't you? Cause they aint taxes don't you know...
Bonnie June 14, 2013 at 11:50 am
I call it a "rainbow!"
M.K. Osborne June 14, 2013 at 03:30 pm
Fees is when its lightning too .
Mr. B June 13, 2013 at 01:29 pm
They're not Americans. They don't deserve to step foot on American soil.
Good Grief Y'all June 13, 2013 at 01:34 pm
Meh, a difference without distinction.
Good Grief Y'all June 13, 2013 at 01:37 pm
Huh, you learn something once in a while on Patch blog threads. I didn't know you must be anRead More American citizen to be tried and convicted of crimes against America . . . ;p I think John and Sarah could handle them . . . you betcha! They would probably beg to be sent back to Gitmo. LOL
EMILY GOLDSTEIN June 7, 2013 at 10:35 am
We don't know yet..it was not me who found her. They had Gwinnett pick her up after staying withherRead More for a few hours..we will know after they process her there. I have contacted golden retriever rescues to let them know so they can see if they have lost ads ..or if need be rescue her
EMILY GOLDSTEIN June 8, 2013 at 02:24 am
She is so sad and missing her owner ANIMAL ID#32243 I am in PEN 114, FEMALE, GOLDEN RETRIEVER. TheRead More shelter thinks I am 3 YEARS OLD. I will be available for adoption starting 6/12/13. FOUND STRAY, LARGE, FRIENDLY Contact the shelter for more info 770-339-3200.
EMILY GOLDSTEIN June 10, 2013 at 03:11 am
Reunited!
Good Grief Y'all June 12, 2013 at 11:43 am
The top marginal tax rate in 1945 was 94%; today it is 35%. This info from one of the slides in theRead More article on various tax charts, including corporate. "A look at 2010 data reveals that the U.S. is one of the least taxed countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to a study released Monday by Citizens For Tax Justice. The CTJ added up federal, state and local tax revenue. The only countries in the OECD that collected a smaller percentage in taxes are Chile and Mexico, according to the data. The OECD is a group of 34 countries that work together to improve the global economy." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/08/us-lowest-taxes-most-industralized-countries_n_3039470.html?utm_hp_ref=business&icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk2%26pLid%3D295994
Good Grief Y'all June 12, 2013 at 12:30 pm
So, B, are you saying no corporations pay taxes? If that were true, why do they offshoreRead More manufacturing and money to avoid and evade? Some don't pay depending on their structure, many do. US corps don't pay as much as most in developed countries, and they sure won't go along with paying more or seeing their CEOs pay more on individual returns. According to the OECD as mentioned in the link, US corporations pay an e f f e c t i v e rate of 13%. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/08/us-lowest-taxes-most-industralized-countries_n_3039470.html?utm_hp_ref=business&icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk2%26pLid%3D295994
Maria Navarro June 13, 2013 at 04:36 pm
Most of the government organizations cannot be trusted, as they have been filled with mostly crooksRead More (not all, but a good majority who use their power to fill their pockets)therefore, I think the IRS should be abolished. We need to go to a FAIR TAX and this way EVERYONE would have to pay their fair share!