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The Tropics Are Becoming More Active

A future tropical storm is beginning to appear on the horizon.

Computer models are keying in on a tropical disturbance that could be forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the next four or five days.

00z ECMWF computer model takes the Caribbean mess, develops it and stalls it in the Central Gulf of Mexico for quite a few days. While it meanders, the storm strengthens from 1004mbs to 986mbs or so as it makes landfall on the Panhandle of Florida with winds greater than 86 mph by next Thursday... in other words a hurricane. This is still in the very early stages of modeling, so things can change a lot between now and then. The GFS isn't as enthusiastic as the Euro so we need a few more days of data gathering before the future becomes clearer. But the models have been toying with this idea for several days now and they appear to be gaining some consistency in their forecast.

This is from the National Hurricane Center this morning:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

Right now the steering currents are weak so whatever direction the system takes, it won't be quickly. Heavy rains will be the main threat right now. 

You can stay on top of the tropical weather by using these two pages.

On the right-hand side of both pages are links to other tropical weather maps, charts, and forecast. Please take a minute to explore all the information we have available.

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North Georgia Weather June 24, 2012 at 08:47 PM
Ok, ok. A new plan. The NHC has changed their forecast path. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_debby_disco.php Due north right now. Please oh please send it this way.
North Georgia Weather June 25, 2012 at 08:12 PM
OK, ok. A new plan. Again. It appears the GFS was correct all along, at least as far as the path of Debby. But again, she's not really moving so all bets are off from anyone. The NHC has really had a difficult time with this one.
Kristi Reed June 25, 2012 at 08:24 PM
All I know is that we could use some rain. My desk top weather station indicates rain is coming, but I can't find any other source that gives more than a 20 percent chance this evening which isn't too great of a chance.
Floyd Akridge June 25, 2012 at 08:59 PM
that dry air it picked up yesterday really tore it apart...the hard news about this storm is the florida panhandle...if this thing is going to move very little through friday...they are going to get it. BUT...I must take complete credit for this storm...it's my doing completely. You see I love space and spaceflight. You can actually see the international space station fly over at times depending on how the sun angle is. We were to have flyovers Sunday night and Wednesday night that were nearly directly overhead....so what happens? a tropical system that throws just enough moisture up here to create nearly overcast skies...it's like this ALL the time...i have no luck...in 2010, there was a complete lunar eclipse on my birthday...what happens? I see a total of 3 minutes of it due to clouds. Maybe I should plan for some fake space event and see if I can get us some rain. Haven't tried that.
North Georgia Weather June 26, 2012 at 01:55 AM
Insane rainfall amounts. Radar estimates: Sopchoppy estimate is 28", Crawfordville estimate is 22" Click here for radar rainfall estimates http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_06/tlh_rainfall_2.png Sopchoppy River. Look at max flow records http://waterdata.usgs.gov/fl/nwis/uv/?site_no=02327100&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060 http://www.nwfwmd.state.fl.us/isb/hydro/rainfall.html

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