.

Christmas Day Forecast: Severe Storms, Threat of Tornadoes and High Winds

Be prepared for severe weather on Christmas day and evening.

First, I wanted to pass this along from the Atlanta NWS at 10:20am this morning:

MEDIA...COULD YOU PLEASE ASK RESIDENTS CHECK THE BATTERIES IN THEIR NOAA WX RADIOS OR INSTALL A SEVERE WEATHER ALERTING APP ON THEIR SMART PHONES? TUE NIGHT COULD BE A LONG NIGHT. THANKS.

Not the type of thing I like to hear from the National Weather Service on Christmas Eve. You think of snow and cold at Christmas, not EF2-3 tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, but that's exactly what is in store for the southeast. 

The Storm Prediction Center had this to say this morning:

MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

I know everyone will be enjoying the festivities that Christmas Day brings, but please stay alert for severe weather as the day goes on, and especially into the evening. James Spann, one of the most experienced weather forecasters in the southeast, had this to say:

"The baseline is having a NOAA Weather Radio in your home, properly programmed, and with fresh batteries in case of a power failure. Also, having a good smart phone warning app is even better. We recommend iMap WeatherRadio for iPhone and Android phones, and MyWarn for iPhone. Both will warn you ONLY if you are in a warning polygon (remember, warnings are not county based), you can program in fixed locations."

I will be providing the latest updates here on the Patch through Christmas evening and into Wednesday as conditions warrant. 

Please remember, whenever you need weather information, please visit us at the new and improved DaculaWeather.com. You can also get the latest weather information by following us on Twitter and Facebook 
DaculaWeather.com... Your Window to the Weather

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather December 24, 2012 at 04:40 PM
From the Atlanta NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) a few minutes ago INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 3 AM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT STORM SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A FEW RIVERS MAINLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA REACHING BANK FULL. AS THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES.
North Georgia Weather December 24, 2012 at 06:37 PM
While conditions will change as the weather enters the state, it doesn't make it less serious for us. James Spann's crew in Alabama are VERY concerned and keep in mind they are upstream from us. Here's what they said a little while ago. "There is no doubt in my mind that this is a serious situation. Everyone needs to take it seriously. People are going to be distracted due to the holiday as we should, so it is imperative that everyone be aware of the severe weather threat and have a way to receive weather warnings tomorrow. And whatever that method is, do not be turning it off for Christmas dinner or other activities. And remember, don’t rely on outdoor weather sirens."
North Georgia Weather December 24, 2012 at 09:12 PM
From the Atlanta NWS at 3:20pm - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php INSTABILITY PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS AND PARTICULARLY NAM TO INCREASE SOUTH OF RAIN AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHERN PART CWA. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM...MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OCCURRING OVER SW GA AND FAR SW PART OF CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MAIN SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO OCCUR BEGIN MIDNIGHT. SVR WX PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SBCAPE NOW PROGGED AT 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT VALID 06Z WED. CAPE AND SHEAR DROPS SOME BY 12Z...BUT SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE. BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS... TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 OR 2.5 INCHES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO LONG TERM DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND STEADY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER 6 HOURS.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 12:53 AM
Alert: ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF AN AMERICUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON LINE. * VISIBILITIES...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. * TIMING...UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.
John Henderson December 25, 2012 at 03:25 AM
Lets Hope the Community Awareness Committee does think its coming from Bill Heads Crematory......
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 05:32 AM
Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared START: 1200Z TUE DEC 25 2012 END: 1200Z FRI DEC 28 2012 TYPE: Regional WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN/EASTERN REGIONS REASON: Severe weather and tornado potential across portions of Southern Region Christmas Day and Christmas night evolving into a significant winter storm over Eastern Region Wednesday through early Friday.
R++ One of the Famous Dacula Crew December 25, 2012 at 05:55 AM
Me thinks a herring was just dropped in...
thcooper69 December 25, 2012 at 11:48 AM
weather prepardness. are u ready if the power goes out for 2 weeks . due to ice storm . do u have your alternate power supply or heat sources figured out . dry starter wood stored in garage for startn fires ,a propane burner or camp stove for heat and cooking on ,candles for light or batteries for flashlights and lanterns dont jus leave your fambilys survival to others ,start thinkin ahead ..when u travel ,does your spare tire have air ,do u have food and water in car and extra clothes to put on if u get skranded in tha cold in a ditch . help may be hours away and your children wellness depends on it ! do u know how to use a jack or do u have snow and ice chains ..get a body suit ,cover all ect with a hot hand pac in an interior pocket will help u or family stay warm in freezing conditions ! mock tire changings in tha drive ways can help u perform better when skranded out on tha streets , do u know how to use a jack ? do u have all tha correct tools to even change a tire ? do u have a scotch block . when ur good at changing a tire u lookin at under 3 mins in time ,dont be the one whos out there in tha weather fo 6 hrs trying to turn tha tire jack nut with a pair of needle nose pliers ,i see this all tha time with peeps be comin up to me beggin for help . thinkin ahead for cold weather prepardness is tha smart move for your family and chilren
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Overnight, the SPC raised the severity of the threat for today and tonight. The area of Slight Risk has expanded and a Moderate Risk area has grown. This is going to be a VERY dangerous situation and everyone needs to pay attention to the weather this evening. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day1_outlook.php http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 12:33 PM
Of course... we could have this instead: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 12:44 PM
PWO Issued by the Storm Prediction Center http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_pwo.php
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 02:16 PM
Merry Christmas to all! We have Tornado Watches in the Deep South, Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings and Watches, Ice Storm Warnings, and Blizzard Warnings with this storm! This will not be a Merry Christmas for many people today due to the weather. make sure that everyone you know is aware of the severe weather that will be in our area later today and tonight as this will be a very serious situation. I know it's hard to fathom severe weather and tornadoes on Christmas Day, but a dangerous weather event will be unfolding throughout the day for almost everyone in the southeast. Unfortunately for us, the worst time for severe weather will be while we're sleeping tonight. Make sure you have a functioning weather radio before you go to bed. Please don't take this severe weather event lightly. Moderate Risk classifications from the SPC are rare even in the spring time. Critical Weather Day and Public Severe Weather Outlooks are other signs that the NWS is working hard to let people know of the dangerous situation about to unfold. This will be a rapidly evolving system as it continues to undergo lee-side cyclogenesis and moves east then northeast throughout the day and evening. Keep checking back, I'll have frequent updates throughout the day.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 04:27 PM
The initial rain shield has reached SW Georgia NW toward Birmingham. This line of moderate to heavy rain will continue to move our direction throughout the day.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 11:21 PM
Currently at this moment, 18 tornado warnings in Alabama.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 11:28 PM
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... INGREDIENTS STILL COMING TOGETHER FOR NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 12Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-55KT NOW IN BOTH NAM AND GFS...THOUGH THESE ARE SOMEWHAT EAST OF BEST MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS. IN SPITE OF THIS...FCST SIG TOR PARAMETER VALUES ARE NOW 1.5-2.5 IN GFS AND 4-5 WITH THE NAM. TORNADO THREAT IS QUITE HIGH FOR A COOL SEASON QLCS EVENT. TIMING ON GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO BETTER MATCH THE SLOWER NAM. LATEST HRRR NOW SIMILAR TO GFS TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS AND WHETHER ANY PREFRONTAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...HAVE NOT TWEAKED TIMING BACK TOO MUCH. TOTAL RAINFALL STILL HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
Tommy Hunter December 25, 2012 at 11:42 PM
Great, all this crap and not enough rain to make it worthwhile. I miss the winters when it would rain fro three days straight and actually put water in our lakes and streams.
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 11:43 PM
MAJOR assistance needed in Mobile unconfirmed report of the hospital and downtown major damage traumatic injuries per Reed Timmer
North Georgia Weather December 25, 2012 at 11:54 PM
Live EMS feed from Mobile http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/290/web
North Georgia Weather December 26, 2012 at 12:43 AM
..SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING... .UPDATE... MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS EVENING AND ARE NOW LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THREAT BEGINNING NEAR 03Z IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCRETE CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION HAVE BEEN TRACKING MOSTLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AL NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. BASED ON PROGGED SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL GA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY TONIGHT POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WHILE A LINGERING HYBRID CAD DOME HAS PRIMARILY SERVED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWARD. EARLIER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MAY HAVE REINFORCED THIS FEATURE AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ALL CONSIDERED... BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER MAINLY SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
Kristi Reed (Editor) December 26, 2012 at 01:29 AM
Well that at least sounds like slightly better news for our area.
North Georgia Weather December 26, 2012 at 11:17 AM
Not bad. I had 3.26" of rain of the last three days! Is that what you're talking about Tommy?
North Georgia Weather December 26, 2012 at 11:43 PM
Of course... as soon as I leave. ...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER MAY RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOTORISTS SHOULD PROCEED WITH CAUTION AS SOME ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK AS TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED IN AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
Tommy Hunter December 27, 2012 at 12:56 AM
Didn't get that much, but I'll take the two inches. Not quite what I was talking about but good enough for now. We need about ten more of these (minus the severe weather) this winter. See what you can cook up.

Boards

More »
Got a question? Something on your mind? Talk to your community, directly.
Note Article
Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors.What's on your mind?What's on your mind?Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell somethingPost something
See more »