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Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST

.DISCUSSION...
CAPES WILL BE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 1200 ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDEX VALUES WILL DECREASE TO -2 TO -4.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HELICITIES WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

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North Georgia Weather January 21, 2012 at 03:01 PM
More severe weather... They are using the Gulfstream IV hurricane hunter aircraft for some of these missions. "The medium range guidance remains very persistent suggesting a deep cut off low develops in Northern Mexico, west of the Big Bend Region bringing copious heavy rains and severe weather chances across the S Plains and the Lower Mississippi during the January 24-26 period before ejecting NE affecting the EC. PW's near 1.7, which are rather impressive for January, will provide deep moisture and favorable upper level dynamics will set the stage for a severe weather event. The HPC has tasked WSR (Winter Storm Reconnaissance) for 22/00Z with additional missions possible from HI and AK. There does remain some uncertainty of potential phasing with the northern stream energy as the cyclone ejects NE." WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EST FRI 20 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-051 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 22/0000Z B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK56 C. 21/1930Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION... P38/ DROP 9 (34.5N 178.3E)/ 23/0000Z. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION FOR 24/0000Z
North Georgia Weather January 21, 2012 at 05:01 PM
More concern mounting for next weeks event. This was just posted by a meteorologist on a forum I visit: "Just gave the final thumbs-up for tonights NOAA G-IV flight. A good case as it's a fairly major event and the models evolve it into some kind of east coast event after drenching Texas. No flights for 1/23 but maybe one for 1/24 for a PacNW moderate/heavy precip event. "
Sharon Swanepoel January 21, 2012 at 05:13 PM
What are we looking at Steve, more storms and tornados?
North Georgia Weather January 21, 2012 at 05:18 PM
Yes. This event around the 24-26th might very well be a major severe weather event. The models are indicating a very strong area of low pressure forming in Texas that will bring large amounts of rain. One major concern is if this system phases with a branch of the jetstream and makes an even stronger system.
North Georgia Weather January 21, 2012 at 05:28 PM
Temps will be falling behind the front. 40's are already entering northwest Georgia.
Sharon Swanepoel January 21, 2012 at 05:55 PM
Tornado watch extended to 8 p.m. now.
David Binder January 21, 2012 at 05:59 PM
Good day to stay home & read The Patch.
North Georgia Weather January 21, 2012 at 07:02 PM
Tornado Watch has been cancelled for Gwinnett and Walton
Steve Burns (Editor) January 21, 2012 at 09:25 PM
Could not agree with you more, David. :)
GwinnettWeather January 22, 2012 at 01:01 PM
Storm reports from yesterday http://www.daculaweather.com/spc_storm_reports.php?mo=01&dt=21&yr=12&submit=Submit

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