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NWS Issues Hydrologic Outlook - Heavy Rain Expected

Heavy rain expected Thursday night through Friday night.


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR NORTH
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH
MCDONOUGH AND MONROE TO HOMER. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OVER LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY AND OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL.

.PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE AREA OF
CONCERN DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS
EXIST WITH SOME AREAS STILL SATURATED. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY HEAVY
RAIN TO BE QUICKLY ABSORBED...THEN RUN OFF INTO NEARBY STREAMS...
CREEKS AND RIVERS.

ISOLATED CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS. STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE WEST CHICKAMAUGA CREEK NEAR FORT OGLETHORPE...THE COAHULLA CREEK NEAR DALTON...AND THE OOSTANAULA RIVER NEAR CALHOUN STILL ABOVE BANKFULL FROM THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.

.IMPACTS...
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY
MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES IN URBAN
AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE
STREET FLOODING AND ROAD PONDING.

You can read the complete message here. 

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North Georgia Weather January 25, 2012 at 01:05 PM
The National weather Service has a serious concern about the severe weather potential for Thursday evening and overnight. A few quotes from the Atlanta office of the NWS: "EITHER WAY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE SIGNIFICANT AND WORTHY OF ATTENTION." "THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS EVENT IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE TO REPEAT OUR PATTERN FOR QLCS ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE POTENT AT PRODUCING TORNADOES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA." The part that makes this even more dangerous is that it will occur at night, when people are sleeping and generally unaware, and that fact that the darkness hides the tornadoes from view. We'll keep you updated.
North Georgia Weather January 25, 2012 at 06:11 PM
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has now placed the metro Atlanta area in a Slight Risk category for severe weather for late tomorrow.
North Georgia Weather January 25, 2012 at 09:23 PM
Here's an excerpt from the latest forecast discussion from the Atlanta NWS office: "...AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. SPC ALREADY HAS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG EVENT EVOLVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO PREPARE NOW. DO NOT LET THESE STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD." I would highlight the last sentence if I could...
North Georgia Weather January 25, 2012 at 10:23 PM
I would like to share a VERY valuable piece of information that I got today from Steve Nelson. Steve is responsible for the operations of the Atlanta NWS office in Peachtree City and I'm very lucky to be able to occasionally pick his brain for information. We had been talking about storm shelters and I got this response: "Shelters are no laughing matter. They're expensive but the only way you could survive a violent tornado. What we're going to be telling people (kids, tours, etc..) is to have a helmet with you in your safe area/room. A team of doctors reported that 80% of the deaths in AL in April were from head trauma. Sure you'll be injured if you get hit by a violent tornado head on, but you have a much better chance of surviving if your head is fully protected. A motorcycle, football or baseball helmet would be best." It appears that the cost of a helmet might be a small price to pay to save a life during a tornado.
North Georgia Weather January 26, 2012 at 10:59 AM
Storms should be arriving here between 6-8pm tonight. Latest from the NWS: RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AS SYSTEM NEARS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GUIDANCE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDING INTO A LARGER AREA THAN THE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED REGION...GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO ATHENS TO VIDALIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE ALL POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
North Georgia Weather January 26, 2012 at 08:28 PM
A new Tornado Watch will likely be issued for us. Map posted. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 262016Z - 262215Z ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z. (between now and 7-8pm our time)
North Georgia Weather January 27, 2012 at 02:33 AM
.UPDATE...DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS EVENT. ACTUALLY...A CLASSIC GULF BLOCK SETUP WITH SQUALL LINE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT ALLOWING RICH MOIST AIR TO STREAM AS FAR NORTHWARD AS MODELS HAD PROJECTED. STILL HAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT AND THIS IS ACTUALLY ENTERING AN AREA OF ENHANCED HELICITY THAT HAS BEEN LAGGING FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...500 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO -17C ALONG THE SHRA ACTIVITY IN AL. THUS FAR HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING...AND NO SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REBOUNDING LOCALLY. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL BUT CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
David Binder January 27, 2012 at 04:34 AM
Thanks for the info. Hopefully we'll be spared all of the severe storms. I'm taking up donations to build an ark though.

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