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Health & Fitness

Multiple Chances for Severe Weather

Stay tuned for potential severe weather updates.

There is a strong possibility for more severe weather, both today but much more so a few days later in the week. First, tonight.The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe weather this evening. To our west in Arkansas, Mississippi, middle and western Tennessee, and north and central Alabama, it will be a different story. There is a very large area under a Moderate Risk for severe weather which could include rotating severe thunderstorms with very high winds and even long track tornadoes. The weather won't be that severe here because our area will sit in a more stable and cooler environment thanks to cold air damming down the east side of the mountains. 

The next system is being monitored very closely by the all of the NOAA branches concerned, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with cooperation from the NOAA and the National Hurricane Center's Gulfstream hurricane hunter aircraft. The latest ingest of data included data from 16 dropsondes released by that aircraft. The following was posted by a NWS meteorologist this morning and I highlighted the very important parts and included my comments in parentheses.

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"Some thoughts this morning regarding the southern cyclone this coming week. The Euro is a bit too progressive and is considered an outlier as is the Canadian. A slower ejection east  of the U/L (upper-level low) has been the pattern all season. There remain some questions as to the amount of phasing with the northern stream short wave and how that will affect our southern cyclone. The data gained from the RECON mission 22/00Z (I mentioned this in a previous post) aided the 00Z GFS/NAM output and was ingested as that mission covered a large area from HI to AK to just off the California Coast. The GFS/UKMet blend with a bit of Euro early on seems like the best solution for now and the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) mentions that in their very early morning update. I do want to mention the severe potential as well. The day 3 SPC is talking about an isolated tornado or two for S Texas as the Coastal low develops and slowly translates NE up the Coast. As has been mentioned, the atmosphere will be very moist through all levels in a very un-January fashion. The Sunday front will slowly retreat north and just where that boundary stalls will be key. We'll look at the operational data for the 12Z suite and hopefully have some more details as to what we can expect. I encourage everyone to follow the weather very closely the next several days as we are likely headed toward a very active couple of days beginning Tuesday through Thursday."

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Stay tuned this week as I provide additional updates as additional information becomes available.     

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